What Do You Mean, Who Won?

After every debate the great question is, Who Won? But nobody ever defines what winning means. Therefore, any answer is meaningless. I can think of several possibilities:

1. X was the better debater -- better informed, all factual claims were accurate, more articulate, logically compelling arguments, and the like.

2. X had the sharp zingers that will dominate the news the next day.

3. X won more voters for his/her candidate than the other.

4. X was more personally engaging, made better contact with the audience.

5. I preferred candidate X for my own reasons.

6. A combination of some or all of the above.

7. None of the above.

Next question: Are we safer now than before 9-11? Adapt the above argument to this one, i. e., meaningless without definition.

Selah!

In Praise of Sarah Palin and all the Unqualified

I'll tell you, I am just sick and tired of hearing people say that Sarah Palin is not qualified to be Vice President. Of course, she is not, but so what?

There are millions and millions of people in this country, including myself, who are not qualified to be Vice President. The unqualified deserve to be represented just like everybody else. She is one of the unqualified, so who better to represent the unqualified than she?

On Getting Sick Enough to Vomit: The Discipline of a Good Depression

We all know that you feel better after you vomit, but nobody wants to get that sick.

It is horrible to think about it, and I feel guilty for even letting the idea surface. But I will proceed anyway. Would a serious economic depression be good for us in the long run? It might.

Could a good depression revive the prudence, discipline, and caution that the Great Depression reinforced in the generation represented by my parents and grandparents.? If so, America might be the better for it.

In recent decades we have developed some toxic cultural habits -- runaway consumerism, an unrestrained self-indulgent hedonism promoted by corporate advertising, disdain for delayed gratification, greed for bigger houses, cars, and the latest gadgets, a pattern of living beyond our means, a careless attitude toward debt aided and abetted by the easy availability of credit and credit cards, failure to consider the consequences of our reckless extravagance, and the like.

To revive an old phrase, the "Protestant ethic" has died. Even many of the churches that are growing rapidly are preaching a gospel of prosperity that a shocked Calvin would have abhorred. Paradoxically, it was the disciplined style of life that valued work and thrift as a divinely-approved virtues that helped generate the widespread prosperity subsequent generations enjoyed. In capitalism individual self-interest was supposed to produce universal welfare. Sadly we find in the current generation a bastardized form of culture that lacks the self-restraint and prudence of the stringent ethic of the past and retains only the desire and expectation of the unlimited possession of material goods in a life of self-indulgent gratification.

No, I don't wish another Great Depression on myself, my children, and grandchildren along with the whole lot of us. I just wish that we could recover the ethic strengthened by it for a generation badly in need of repentance and newness of life. But sometimes we need to get very sick before we can vomit and feel better.

Damnation by Designation: the "Bailout"

What's in a name? A heck of a lot.

The rescue plan that was defeated today was damned from the start once it became known as a "bailout of Wall Street by taxpayers." Of course, we all hate that.

But that's about all that got through apparently. The dire consequences of not rescuing the financial industry was only a echo of the original ear-splitting blast.

Once the idea of a bailout of Wall Street became the way most people thought about it, proponents failed to make the point that the "bailout" was the means. The end was to save us all -- Wall Street and Main Street. In the glare of a"bailout" of the very financial geniuses of Wall Street who caused it (forgetting about all the greedy people who foolishly bought houses and cars, etc., etc. etc., and got themselves into unsustainable debt) the little glimmer of light that failure to do so would sink us all never got into the public mind, despite all the warnings from all sides.

My understanding from the economists I trust is that while the rescue plan was badly constructed and probably not the best way to accomplish the objective -- saving the financial system -- it was better than doing nothing and was the bill before us.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/where-will-the-money-come-from/

Once the serious consequences of a failure to get credit flowing again begins to hurt masses of people, maybe some constructive action will follow.

Now if only the politicians would stop trying to exploit the issue for partisan purposes, but, uh oh, I am dreaming again.

Quasi-Acerbic Oddities for the Day

I am now convinced that Bill Clinton wants Obama to lose, so Hillary can run in 2012. He is oozing with enthusiastic praise for McCain and Palin and damning Obama with "Oh, he's nice too" remarks. I take back the nice things I said about him after his Convention speech.

Sarah Palin is self-destructing. She has been knocked off her lofty perch, has lost confidence, and is giving 10th grade answers to simple questions, and looking like a simpleton. Can she recover? Maybe.

Sinister Scheme to Make McCain the Economic Savior

I smell a rat. I suspect that the mother of all Rovian plots is about to appear that will make McCain the brave hero who saves the nation from economic disaster just in time for him to make the debate tonight on foreign policy on which he already has an advantage.

It can take several paths. He scares the daylights out of House Republicans, convincing them that if that don't come to his aid right now, Obama will become president and appoint liberal judges to the Supreme Court, bring in a reign of government control, spend great sums on social programs, and so on. They agree to hold their nose and support a bi-partisan Rescue Package enabling the revised Paulson plan to pass.

McCain gets Democrats to accept enough of the House Republican modifications to persuade everybody to go along. Democrats will either have to accept the changes to get a deal, or they will have to refuse and take blame for the failure. Or Democrats can pass it on their own and risk ruin if the plan fails.

Combinations and variations of all the above or some new possibilities emerge -- all designed to make McCain the hero who rode into town and took charge.

It could be worked so that failure still looms until Obama leaves for Oxford. Then the McCain-engineered plan could be worked out and announced just as Obama begins his town hall meeting before the nation, thus stealing the spotlight from him.

I tell you that some nefarious scheme is underfoot to make McCain look good as the Great Leader and Obama to look weak and ineffectual in times of crisis -- more willing to hold a silly old debate than to save the nation from disaster. We have reports already that McCain was working the phones all night.

Can the Democrats spoil the conspiracy and save Obama's hide? Maybe. Am I paranoid? Maybe, but just because you are paranoid does not mean they are not after you.

If I am wrong, I will repent and confess my lack of faith. If I am right, I will not enjoy my prescient vision of Democrats once again blowing the presidency by being outsmarted by the forces of darkness.

Deep Thinker Palin or I Can't Believe She Really Said That

With thanks to Ruth Marcus of The Washington Post.

In a recent interview Sean Hannity of Fox News tossed Sarah Palin the following softball (slow pitch):

Hannity: What is our role as a country as it relates to national security?

Palin: Yes. That's a great question, and being an optimist I see our role in the world as one of being a force for good, and one of being the leader of the world when it comes to the values that -- it seems that just human kind embraces the values that -- encompass life and liberty and the pursuit of happiness, and that's just -- not just in America, that is in our world.

And America is in a position because we care for so many people to be able to lead and to be able to have a strong diplomacy and a strong military also at the same time to defend not only our freedoms, but to help these rising smaller democratic countries that are just -- you know, they're putting themselves on the map right now, and they're going to be looking to America as that leader.

We being used as a force for good is how I see our country.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com
/postpartisan/2008/09/palin_on_thin_ice.html

Gee, Sarah, I bet you made an A in that 6th grade civics class.
You what? You want to be a heartbeat away from being President of the United States.

Geography is Everything, Well Almost

I did the interactive electoral map at RealClear Politics and chose the states (blue) I thought Obama could put in his column and thus win the election.

The geographical elements were so strong that it reminded me of a previous blog in which I set forth a geographical theory of politics. It is so prescient and so brilliant (ha ha) that I dare to repeat it here.

Thursday, November 18, 2004

A Geographical Theory of Winning in 2008

Look at the electoral maps of 2000 and 2004. The geographical pattern is striking, allowing for minor exceptions. The blue Democratic states are the Northeast, the upper Midwest, and the states bordering the Pacific. The red Republican states are the Southeast, Southwest, lower Midwest, mountain and plains states. A pre-Civil War map showing free (blue) and slave (red) states and territories almost exactly matches the electoral map of 2004.

While electoral maps of many other years would not be this striking, a geographical factor is present, except in blowout years like 1936, 1972, and 1984. Look at it another way. Democrats won the large cities, while Republicans won the small towns and rural areas, with the suburbs split. Divisions are also noticeable with regard to income, education,, religion, race and ethnicity, age, marital status, and gender, but geography is relevant to many of these as well. Zip code is an important clue all by itself.

Since this is a blog and not a book, what can we learn from this? Geography is a useful clue to many other things -- history, economics, religion, and culture. The geography of the South, e. g., was conducive to cotton growing and therefore slavery, which has deeply affected its entire history. Geographical factors account in part for immigration patterns and the Protestant domination of the South.

Geography is a component of, if not clue to, how things worked out in other areas with regard to economics, culture, and religion. So what does this mean for 2008? Assuming that the situation will remain much like it is now in terms of red and blues states as is probable, ask how the blue states can be preserved for the Democrats while reaching out to enough other states that can be likely won to win the election. Some decisions are easy. Massachusetts is probably a safe bet if the Democrats don't do something crazy, but forget Utah for a while. Either Florida or Ohio is probably a must, remembering that a shift of only 70,000 votes in Ohio in 2004 would have given the victory to Kerry.

Looking toward 2008, Democrats live in tension between holding true to their values and getting elected. How to win without losing your soul -- that is the question. With Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia, we risk losing our soul. With Sen. Hillary Clinton, we risk losing the election. My sentimental favorites at the moment are John Edwards and Barack Obama, but time may question the wisdom of one or both. But to begin with candidates, issues, and values is to get the cart before the horse. We need to start with geographical, historical-cultural factors and make a structural analysis of where enough more votes can come from next time to enlarge the number of blue states. Then we can match messenger and message to that purpose.

Semi-Acerbic Oddities on a Night of Upset Tummy

Will somebody please explain to me the difference between "moral" and "ethical" when used together to speak of issues or problems. Thesis: one or the other should be dropped.

Time to retire the following terms: campaign trail, populist, Wall Street and Main Street, bailout

I would suggest the two words most needing retirement -- well and you know -- but, well, I am aware that, you know, that is impossible since it would paralyze most speakers.

Time to quit having the following on TV news shows: political strategists of all denomination -- Democratic, Republican, or whatever. They offer nothing valuable and are boring time fillers, a waste of time.

Politicians should be allowed to speak only when attached to a polygraph machine and after a shot of truth serum. Any lie detected should generate an electric shock in the _________ (fill in the blank).

Medical wonders occur every day. But remember, doctors don't do it alone. They do it with nurses.

No More Sexism Please

I think the sexism expressed in regard to Gov. Sarah Palin is terrible. Those who are guilty of it should be ashamed. An apology is owed to the Governor by those delegates at the Republican Convention who wore badges that said, "Hoosiers for the hot chick."

Some Interesting Sidelights: Obama and McCain

The more education you have, the more likely you are to be for Obama and the less likely to smoke.

The more you attend church, the more likely you are to be for McCain and the less likely to smoke.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107110/Obamas-Support-Similar-Kerrys-2004.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/28213/Latest-Gallup-Update-Shows-Cigarette-Smoking-Near-Historical-Lows.aspx

http://groups.google.com/group/alt.smokers/browse_thread/thread/e69d610277262e52

Reforming Washington: A Fact Check on Obama and McCain

Our presidential candidates have informed us that there is greed on Wall Stree. (GASP) and a need to reform financial markets in the light of recent events. Not to worry, they both promise to ride into town like Hopalong Cassidy in the old Westerns and clean the place up. Boy, are they gonna get those "malefactors of great wealth" (T. Roosevelt).

Flip-flopping McCain has even had a near deathbed conversion and is now in favor of regulation. A Republican advocating more regulation of big business (GASP)! Contrary to Reagan, whom he and the whole GOP adore, government, he admits, is not always the problem, sometimes it is the answer (GASP).

I think it is wonderful that help is on the way, no matter who wins. But in the interests of transparency (we all love that), I propose that they both publish lists of their largest contributors. Hint: some of them are Wall Stree financial giants (GASP). Obama's largest 2008 contributor is Goldman Sachs: $691+ thousand.

Check it out with The Center for Responsive Politics:

Obama
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/contrib.php?cycle=2008&cid=N00009638

McCain
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/contrib.php?id=N00006424&cycle2=2008

(GASP)

What? A Jail in Wasilla?

I was shocked to learn that there is a jail in Wasilla, Alaska, hometown of Sarah Palin. I knew other small towns had jails but Wasilla? Sure other small towns have people who gossip, commit crimes, use illegal drugs, have prejudices against various groups different from them, even teen age pregnancies without benefit of clergy. But Wasilla?

I was pastor of a church in a small town, went to school in another small town, lived in a another small town. But mostly I grew up in the country among farmers. I love small towns and rural areas. We all are sentimental and nostalgic about them. We know and appreciate their virtues. But they are made up of people who have faults just like people who live in cities.

But after hearing Sister Sarah, I thought Wasilla was different, not like that awful den of iniquity San Francisco.

You mean I need to check out stuff the Governor says? Can't anybody be trusted any more? After all, she comes from a small town, was even Mayor of one.

OK, this is another one for the choir, but heck we all like to gossip, even in small towns.

McCain-Palin: Hypocrites, Liars

If McCain were really a maverick reformer, bringer of change, he could start right now, today, by denouncing the dirty, despicable campaign the Republicans are running and have run since Nixon under the tutelage of the Lee Atwater-Karl Rove School of Slime.

He has surrendered any claim to integrity and honor by showing his willingness to engage in or approve the same kind of demagoguery and misrepresentation of facts the Republicans have used for decades, while smiling piously when Palin tells her lies and sarcastically demeans Obama.

He damned Obama's lack of experience and chose Palin who has even less experience than Obama and then is complicit in the outrageous, baseless, laughable claim that she has more and better, showing that all his raging was a sham, insincere, a put-on.

Now he has become the great maverick hero because the experience tactic didn't work, and he belatedly saw that change and reform.are the magic words this year.

Palin's righteous claims about refusing the Bridge to Nowhere and her frugal disdain for earmarks are belied by her former actual previous practice, but McCain raises no question.

McCain has not condemned the lie about Obama's use of the "lipstick on a pig" notion, which was clearly not a reference to Palin.

He has not rejected his campaign's lying claims that Obama voted for age inappropriate sex education for kindergarten kids.

There is no tactic of opposition to Palin that is not made out to be either condescendingly deferential or a male brute bullying the nice lady candidate. All negative comments or attacks whatsoever, no matter what, are sexist and not respectful. Has he decried this scurrilous defense of her? Of course not.

When I was a boy in Georgia, the demagogues were still around, and I know demagoguery when I see it, and it is flourishing in this campaign in the Republican slimy tactics against Obama. Republicans are geniuses at finding the emotional hot buttons in people -- their fears, suspicions, hatreds -- and exploiting them in ways both subtle and blatant with clever pictures, slogans, and cliches that arouse the worst possible passions in voters, including xenophobia and racism.

Until McCain denounces the contemptible campaign tactics of his own party that are present here and now, I view his promise to shake Washington to the foundations as fraudulent and him as a charlatan and a phony.

PS: Obama is not without fault on this score, e. g., the 100 years in Iraq comment was not the whole truth. Maybe they could make a pact to refrain from misleading criticisms of each other and to condemn anything in their campaigns that was not accurate or fair.

Palin the Prophet, Discerner of the Will of God

It turns out  Sarah Palin is also a prophet.

The Interfaith Alliance reports that Governor Palin addressed ministry students at her former church, Wasilla Assembly of God, this June. In her remarks she asserted that  our troops in Iraq are on a "task that is from God," and it is "God's will" to build a natural gas pipeline across Alaska. 

http://www.interfaithalliance.org/news/265-interfaith-alliance-criticizes-palins-theocratic-rhetoric 

Sex and the Single Girl

My how times have changed. In my day a teenage girl who got pregnant without benefit of clergy was disgraced, sent away to a Crittenden Home or relatives to live until the illegitimus arrived to be cruelly known by all as a bastardus. Thankfully, we think more kindly today about the matter. Indeed, celebrities who have babies begotten in fornicatio are routine occurrences provoking no shame, just more fame. It happens all around us in all segments of society and scarcely raises an eyebrow anymore.

We know we live in a different age from that of my youth when the pre-maritally inseminated daughter of the vice-presidential candidate and her inseminater are enthusiastically greeted by the smiling Republican presidential candidate onstage before a cheering audience and millions of TV viewers.

It seems also that fornicatio, though not approved, is regarded lightly these days by evangelical Christians, even if the fruit of concupiscence results in a surprise pre-nuptial pregnancy, as long as the fetus is not aborted and the couple who had enjoyed pre-conjugal bliss avail themselves of appropriate legalizing rituals. Or so one would conclude from the ecstatic reception of the Governor of Alaska as McCain's running mate among conservatives and evangelical Christians.

I prefer these contemporary norms and habits to the stigmatizing practices of the past. Non-marital teenage pregnancy can happen in any family anywhere, and the Palins are dealing with it admirably.

But my how times have changed.

Palin Gives a Clue to Republican Strategy

My guess that the speeches of two days ago, especially Palin's, give us revealing clues about what we should expect from now on. This was confirmed by McCain's own address last night and by what their strategists are saying.

Smiling Sister Sarah is going to be the pit-bull hockey mom with lipstick, sometimes known as the attack dog -- the traditional role of the VP candidate. If Democrats fight back against her in the same pit bull tones, they will be accused of sexism and bullying the nice lady. If the Democrats point to her sarcasm and distortion of facts, they will be accused of making personal attacks, while at the same time impugning Obama of loving hismelf more than he loves the country. If the public criticism gets loud, it will be blamed on the media -- a standard Republican defense when they feel vulnerable and run out of sensible arguments.

There was no mention by Palin of W, not one. FDR and Truman were praised but not George Bush -- current Republican President of the United States. No mention either of Dick Cheney, the Vice-President she wants to succeed.

We will be hearing a lot about change and reform and little or nothing of continuing the great accomplishments of the current administration, e. g., prosperity at home, fiscal restraint, victory in Iraq, peace, and universal love for America abroad. We will not be hearing about her extremist views of abortion and some other issues.

We will hear much about a set of contrasts:

Rural, small-town virtue versus big city decadence

Wasilla versus San Francisco

Authentic Americans versus the elite

Decent ordinary Americans versus Washington

Average hockey mom versus intellectual Professor

They will deflect criticism of her inexperience by pointing to Obama's alleged lack of same in relation to McCain's, devalue what experience Obama has had -- community organizer versus small-town mayor -- and when she is compared to Biden will deride the Washington establishment in favor of a fresh, uncorrupted voice from the outside who can reform the wicked place. No matter that the Republican tactics are brimming full of logical fallacies, meanness, evasion, denial, and distortion of facts. The barrage will come so fast that before the truth squad can deconstruct them, there will be more in the ads and speeches. They will accuse Democrats of despicable tactics while playing the game by the Lee Atwater-Karl Rove slime book.

We will hear repeatedly of the condescending elitism of Obama about bitter small-town and working-class Americans who cling to guns and religion and develop xenophobic prejudices -- words spoken to an affluent crowd in California in private, he thought. (Obama's most stupid mistake, admittedly.)

We will hear much of change and reform, about McCain the maverick, and Palin the fresh voice from the uncorrupted frontier who will shake the foundations of Washington but little or nothing about continuity with the Bush-Cheney reign.

Apparently, they intend to play down issues and make the election about character. The means means that the Republican mean machine will be on a mission of character assasination to present Obama is an upatriotic American with devious aims of vainglory as well as an uppity elitist who demeans small town, working-class peoples and their values.

Will it work? I wish I were more confident that it won't. Obama, Biden, and the Clintons have to do all they can to make sure it doesn't.

Obama and the Palin Pregnancy

Obama said exactly the right thing. The candidate's personal life is off-limits. The family of the candidate is off-limits. This is also a warning to the McCain campaign to leave Michelle out of it.

How to Handle the Palin Candicacy

The choice of Palin as VP put the right-wing evangelicals into a state of ecstasy and reinvigorated the conservative base. Republicans are offering the most logic-defying, stupefying mental gymnastics, in producing the lamest defenses of her lack of experience, especially on foreign affairs, I have ever seen. It is breathtaking -- has more experience than Obama, Obama has less than McCain -- all totally avoiding the question about her own paper-thin resume. Is the only harm to Obama is that it may get more of them enthusiastically to the polls? Maybe, but I am a little nervous.

The Dems have to be careful how they respond to her. Biden cannot appear to be patronizing or condescending to this foreign policy novice.. If he treats her like a lady, that will prompt some women to criticize him for not considering her as an equal.

Neither can he be overly aggressive in going after her full force. If he treats her like an equal and attacks her like he would a man, he will be criticised for being a bully against this winsome, wholesome hockey mom -- thus provoking women to defend her and men to protect her. Sexism works both ways. Remember Hillary's complaints and those of her supporters.

Women will sympathize with her problems in being a working mom, and working-class moms will feel a kinship to this down to earth woman and want to identity with her.

Many men, especially the manly men of a type, may be swept into fantasizing about a beauty-queen wife who will go hunting, fishing, and riding into the wilderness with his and her guns in the pickup rack and say to hell with the fact that she has never read an article in Foreign Affairs or been in the same room with Sarkozy. She will just stand on the border of Alaska in her combat boots with her AK47 and yell over to Putin, "Don't make me come over there and show you why you better get your butt out of Georgia, and you better not burn Atlanta down." I can hear them saying, "By damn, she is the kind of real American we need to send to Washington to straighten things out."

Many of these men and women are in demographic groups in which Obama has not done well-- small town and rural America and in the blue-collar, old industrial regions -- land of the Reagan Democrats. Hillary Clinton and Bill did do well, and they must help out in these areas, along with Biden.

Women will need to take the lead in demolishing her on all fronts. Dangerous for a man if not done just right -- remember the Hillary women's complaint against Obama, the press, and the world. Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida has set the example. She sliced the lady from Alaska into small pieces with a few well-chosen words.

At first I thought the best line of attack was to expose her as the right-wing extremist that she is -- out of the main stream.  But I have reconsidered. I think both campaigns will rightly play  down the culture wars because that is not where it's at this year. People -- with Democratic help if necessary-- will learn her social and cultural views and react accordingly, but this is not decisive this time around.

The question is whether her visceral, emotional appeal to a certain class of voters can be overcome by making people aware of what the McCain-Palin team will -- mostly won't -- do to help struggling Americans find jobs with decent wages and benefits, keep their houses, afford health care, secure child care when both parents work, and the like.

Is it possible to break through the spontaneous affection of those who have fallen in love with  this seductively charming woman to confront people with hard reality? Will image and a sense of identification with her trump competence on issues of national policy about which Republicans have little or nothing to offer ordinary hard-working, struggling Americans?

She is Annie Oakley who looks good in combat boots and June Allyson or Julie Andrews in high heels. She is fresh, charming, has a good story to tell, and represents a kind of wholesome, unassuming American type that many ordinary people in small towns and rural areas will find compelling -- the kind of real American we need.in office.

She may self-destruct, other revelations may doom her, her early enthusiasts may become disillusioned. Reluctant Hillary supporters may be driven toward Obama. Moderates and independents may turn against her. Who knows?

McCain may come out looking like a political genius or an idiot. As my son-in-law says, "We live in interesting times."

McCain's Adultery, Trophy Wife Problem

In his personal life John (Keating Five) McCain in his first marriage committed adultery, abandoned a badly-injured wife, and married a gorgeous, young filthy-rich blond.

Now he is doing the same thing politically. His first political marriage was to Dowdy Experience Maturity. Now he has abandoned this badly injured spouse, committed political adultery and hastily eloped in a shot-gun marriage of convenience with Purity Inexperience Reformer, a fresh, charming, young, church-going, gun-totin,' moose-huntin,' right-wing extremist. She supported a constitutional amendment in Alaska in 1998 banning same-sex marriage.

Implications for the campaign's future self-definition:
Goodbye George Bush, hello Annie Oakley.
Goodbye, experience, hello change.
Goodbye 90% Republican loyalist, hello maverick.
Goodbye moderates, hello far-right evangelicals.

Indisputably female, she is posing as a look alike to Hillary Clinton and giving her supporters a seductive come hither smile, promising to break the political ceiling that HRC only dented, although admittedly 18,000,000 times. Those mean old reactionary Democrats didn't want a woman on the ticket, but we barrier-breaking, diversity loving Republicans, always on the frontiers of liberation for oppressed minorities, first always to toot the horn of social justice for everybody so that people can be judged by the content of their character and not by the shape of their reproductive equipment -- yes we social pioneers welcome the opportunity to open the doors of opportunity to all who have been shut out (with the exception of homosexuals, of course, who are perverts). So join us in celebrating this historic breakthrough. The Democrats could only manage to nominate the first African American for president -- what slow-moving wimps.